Carbon-neutral cities: Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of urban land-use changes, greenhouse gas emissions, and management policies
Urban-regional development is dynamic and complex. To become carbon neutral, urban systems need to be efficient in energy and transportation and reduce internal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport, construction, use of buildings, and energy production, while also increasing carbon sinks and using carbon offsets.
This is not easy and there is no simple protocol to follow. In this project, we will extend social-ecological systems modeling to quantify and project GHG emissions from complex urban environments under various human activity scenarios. We will use an integrated support tool in planning scenarios for urban-regional development (case: Stockholm region). This open source tool, Land use Evolution and lmpact Assessment Model (LEAM), couples urban land use policy and practice, and associated GHG emissions and feedbacks, allowing for policy scenario analysis and stakeholder engagement and education.
The coupled modeling framework uses regional planning data to inform:
i) a land-use model that accounts for socio-economic impacts and forecasts urban residential and commercial land-use growth; and
ii) a dynamic, spatial-explicit model tool for assessment of GHG emissions (including carbon sinks, storage potential, buildings, and transportation) to spatially identify high-emission areas to target in climate mitigation and urban policies.
Outputs from the project will be used in a decision support tool for communication, policy-making, and scenario testing.
Project period
2020–2023
Funding
The Swedish Research Council (VR)
Contact person
Other SATORI participants
Brian Deal, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Jessica Page, Stockholm University